Thursday, April 14, 2011

During the day Donald Rumsfeld May Be a Secret Day-Trader

I was going to write a quick post on Rumsfeld's quote and go on to work. But the more I though about it, the more profound the quote  became.

"There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know."

 The "known known" we do every day. We feel confident that our trading plan will manifest large or consistent profits and usually everything works out.
The "known unknowns" is that article we want to read. That research paper that is going to teach us how to accomplish our goals. Or it is the co-worker who knows and believes your trading rules would work with his idea. We know where to find this information, and are showing our interdependence.
The secret to trading is the "unknown unknowns"....Wait, I know there is no "Holy Grail" of trading but.... What don't I know that other traders are using and taking advantage of?  What "unknown unknown" trading rule or opinion would change my view, my life and my future?  What subtle change could I engineer that would open my world to a whole new avenue of opportunity?

The definition of confirmation bias is a tendency to test for, use and notice only what confirms to one's own beliefs, and ignore or avoid what contradicts one's hypothesis.

I found a wiki that showed all the different cognitive biases and started to equate them to trading. Wow! So many apply to the trading process.

What biases have you observed or noticed?

Posts & Other Articles
David Dreman, Contrarian
Stephen Covey

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