Friday, August 26, 2011

Rebounding Gold?

Totally inadvertently TrashStock called the timing for gold's correction.  As of Wednesday night, though, Trashstock thought that the correction had been overdone, and sold his GLD Jan 12 130 & 140 puts Thursday morning, and traded them for a calendar spread consisting of GLD calls, Oct 11 170's and Jan 12 170's, in anticipation of something of a reactionary rally, coupled with hesitation about Bernanke's Jackson Hole, Wyoming talk.  Who knew (TS didn't factor this tidbit in) that GDP would be reported down this morning, which has added a boost to yesterday's rebound.

Incidentally, TrashStock has been using's site for tracking the spot gold prices - very useful. Also, this recent foray into the commodity to outlast all commodities has taught TrashStock that in a game with heightened volatility, positions closer to the money are probably more likely to produce results than those further afield.  The Jan 12 130's barely budged, though the 140's did return about 90%.


Monday, August 22, 2011

Tolkien Gold

"All that is gold does not glitter,
Not all those who wander are lost;"

In his classic tale of travel and travails, J.R.R Tolkien teaches the reader many things, not the least of which is how to seek value amongst a seeming cornucopia of treasures.  While gold appears to be the safe haven in these hard times, perhaps it's not the treasure that will serve you best.  Hardworking companies like AAPL and CROX are building both cash and global brands which, while they won't outlive gold, they will appreciate over the coming years much more readily.  Are you ready to limit yourself with the yellow metal, or are you open to far better vehicles for the road?

Consider a contrarian investment such as out-of-the-money GLD Puts as the appreciation of gold accelerates.

[PUT (GLD) SPDR GOLD TR GOLD JAN 21 12 $140 (100 SHS)]


Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Time for Experimenting

When the market has been as volatile as it has lately, its time for experimenting.

On Stocktwits IWO to the close and Stocktwits Brunch, Steve Place has mentioned that if you trade as a hobby and don't have to be in this market, then don't be. It is really interesting to watch the video from the last 2 weeks, throughout this draw down. When I compare what I thought was happening to what actually happened, there was quite a divergence. Volatility can fool you into watching things at too narrow a time frame. Go back and switch all your charts into weekly time periods to see a different perspective.

So I have been playing with an option simulator to learn how to make money in a down market.

Are we done with this trend? Probably not. It takes a lot longer to get through these things than we think; However, I am taking advantage of the situation to watch/buy good cheap stocks and to learn how to trade in this down market.

But the market sometimes does things we don't expect.

Monday, August 15, 2011

Patents Trump Products

Google's bid to purchase Motorola Mobility is a clear shot across Apple's bow.  While on the face of it Google may be seeking to marshall forces in the Android smartphone device arena, "What Google likely wants from the acquisition is Motorola's trove of more than 17,000 patents on phone technology. Google recently lost out" in Apple's group buy of Nortel patents...that won't happen again.

IMHO, however, I think Google will only succeed beyond Apple if they take a page from Apple's book and innovate ahead of the market.  Time will see if anybody can out-Apple Apple.

Unless they tell us otherwise, I think RIMM, NOK and Samsung's collective geese are cooked. Their patent portfolios (and Samsung's flash & screen production capabilities) are going forward more valuable than their products.  They similarly need to out-Apple Apple... but don't bet on it.


Monday, August 8, 2011

Don't Panic

Don't panic, folks.

While today may not be the time to jump in on new lows, the next few weeks will be a learning experience for us all.  Corporate earnings will still reign supreme, though we'll be distracted by political intrigue left and right.  If cash is king, look to large ($AAPL) and small ($CROX) cash holders to comfortably lead the way forward, after initial panicky stumbles.


Friday, August 5, 2011

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

$AAPL Spends Its Billions on Green

Look no further for where Apple will be spending some of its greenbacks: on green-oriented PC recycling.  Apple is emailing out RMA (return merchandise authorization) numbers so that customers can return either sellable products (read: recent macs) or non-sellable older machines:

Where does this spend money? Two places:  (1) with FedEx, and (2) with a contracted or inhouse recycler.  Actually, if you look at the environment page on Apple's website, they're putting a lot of thought into the whole carbon footprint equation, and how Apple as an industrial concern can offset their own impact.  Recycling is one method, so you might say Apple is investing some of its billions right back into the environment.