Interactive & SSD: Blasts from the Future

Forrester Research recently released this "news" about the future of Interactive Marketing...big news (but expected).  Why is this relevant to the investment world? Did Groupon read this?  "We expect this [interactive] growth to help firms become adaptive, kill off daily deals..."

CTO of Panasas, Inc. Garth Gibson gives pause to the future of Seagate, Western Digital and other "hard drive" manufacturers.  As if tens of millions of Flash-based iPods, iPads & iPhones weren't clue enough, Gibson defines reasons why High Performance Computing (HPC), which leads the way into the future for the computing industry, will need to consider further use of Solid State Disks (SSD's).

..TS.

Rebounding Gold?

Totally inadvertently TrashStock called the timing for gold's correction.  As of Wednesday night, though, Trashstock thought that the correction had been overdone, and sold his GLD Jan 12 130 & 140 puts Thursday morning, and traded them for a calendar spread consisting of GLD calls, Oct 11 170's and Jan 12 170's, in anticipation of something of a reactionary rally, coupled with hesitation about Bernanke's Jackson Hole, Wyoming talk.  Who knew (TS didn't factor this tidbit in) that GDP would be reported down this morning, which has added a boost to yesterday's rebound.

Incidentally, TrashStock has been using Kitco.com's site for tracking the spot gold prices - very useful. Also, this recent foray into the commodity to outlast all commodities has taught TrashStock that in a game with heightened volatility, positions closer to the money are probably more likely to produce results than those further afield.  The Jan 12 130's barely budged, though the 140's did return about 90%.

..TS.

Tolkien Gold

"All that is gold does not glitter,
Not all those who wander are lost;"

In his classic tale of travel and travails, J.R.R Tolkien teaches the reader many things, not the least of which is how to seek value amongst a seeming cornucopia of treasures.  While gold appears to be the safe haven in these hard times, perhaps it's not the treasure that will serve you best.  Hardworking companies like AAPL and CROX are building both cash and global brands which, while they won't outlive gold, they will appreciate over the coming years much more readily.  Are you ready to limit yourself with the yellow metal, or are you open to far better vehicles for the road?

Consider a contrarian investment such as out-of-the-money GLD Puts as the appreciation of gold accelerates.

[PUT (GLD) SPDR GOLD TR GOLD JAN 21 12 $140 (100 SHS)]

..TS.

Time for Experimenting

When the market has been as volatile as it has lately, its time for experimenting.

On Stocktwits IWO to the close and Stocktwits Brunch, Steve Place has mentioned that if you trade as a hobby and don't have to be in this market, then don't be. It is really interesting to watch the video from the last 2 weeks, throughout this draw down. When I compare what I thought was happening to what actually happened, there was quite a divergence. Volatility can fool you into watching things at too narrow a time frame. Go back and switch all your charts into weekly time periods to see a different perspective.

So I have been playing with an option simulator to learn how to make money in a down market.

Are we done with this trend? Probably not. It takes a lot longer to get through these things than we think; However, I am taking advantage of the situation to watch/buy good cheap stocks and to learn how to trade in this down market.

But the market sometimes does things we don't expect.

Patents Trump Products

Google's bid to purchase Motorola Mobility is a clear shot across Apple's bow.  While on the face of it Google may be seeking to marshall forces in the Android smartphone device arena, "What Google likely wants from the acquisition is Motorola's trove of more than 17,000 patents on phone technology. Google recently lost out" in Apple's group buy of Nortel patents...that won't happen again.

IMHO, however, I think Google will only succeed beyond Apple if they take a page from Apple's book and innovate ahead of the market.  Time will see if anybody can out-Apple Apple.

Unless they tell us otherwise, I think RIMM, NOK and Samsung's collective geese are cooked. Their patent portfolios (and Samsung's flash & screen production capabilities) are going forward more valuable than their products.  They similarly need to out-Apple Apple... but don't bet on it.

..TS.

Don't Panic

Don't panic, folks.

While today may not be the time to jump in on new lows, the next few weeks will be a learning experience for us all.  Corporate earnings will still reign supreme, though we'll be distracted by political intrigue left and right.  If cash is king, look to large ($AAPL) and small ($CROX) cash holders to comfortably lead the way forward, after initial panicky stumbles.

..TS.

A Pina Colada at Trader Vic's

...just sayin'...

..TS.